I’m Ulf Holmberg, a PhD economist exploring various and interesting topics such as macroeconomics, econometrics, equity markets, climate change and, last but not least,  consciousness. On this webpage, I share my results and you are more than welcome to read them and to contact me if you have any questions. 

3y probability density mass

GCP data effect index

(Last data point: 2024-03-24)

Since 2000

Check out the spikes in 2001, 2008, 2018, 2020 & 2024 (?)

Since 2023

Check out the end of February & March 2024!

Macroeconomic tail probabilities

Low values represent macroeconomic stress

(Index under construction, last data point represents  December 2023)

The United States

3y probability density mass

3y probability density mass

3y tail probability


3y tail probability

Copyright ©

All rights reserved