2026-05-06 Final Out-of-Sample Results Given that the original GCP1 data stream is no longer operational following the unforeseen infrastructure issue in late March/ early April 2026, the preregistered out-of-sample simulation has now effectively been completed. As many readers know, the project has focused on a fully prospective out-of-sample evaluation of the forecasting framework originally introduced in Holmberg (2024), together with a newer regime-dependent extension based on a three-state Hidden Markov Model (HMM3). Importantly, the purpose has never been to argue that Global Consciousness Project (GCP) data “predicts markets” in any simple unconditional sense. Rather, the study has investigated a narrower and more conditional hypothesis: namely, whether GCP-derived coherence measures may contain weak informational structure during periods characterized by elevated and structurally coherent market stress. The figure below summarizes the relative cumulative out-of-sample performan