This section outlines the ongoing one-day-ahead econometric simulations comparing two preregistered models—one incorporating Global Consciousness Project (GCP1) data and one excluding it. The framework extends the analysis presented in the 2024 study, testing whether the GCP-linked signal continues to provide predictive value in real-time market conditions through 2025. In the 2024 study, statistically significant correlations were observed between GCP1 data (specifically the Max[Z] metric) and financial market movements. That study also included a one-year out-of-sample simulation to validate the findings, with supportive results. This new study builds on that work by extending the analysis into a new one-day-ahead simulation framework running through the end of 2025. The goal is to evaluate the stability and practical predictive potential of GCP1 data, and to further assess the proposed GCP data linked metric beyond the original simulation horizon. New econometric models have been de

2025-11-02 In response to the latest results, I have now updated the full-sample model estimates through October 31, 2025. The structure of the models remains unchanged: two otherwise identical OLS models are compared, one including Max [Z] (the GCP-based predictor) and one without it. I have also preregistered two alternative specifications that loosen the link to the Nikkei 225 slightly, due to the recent decoupling between Japanese and U.S. markets. Key takeaways so far: The GCP-dependent model still explains slightly more variation in S&P 500 returns than the benchmark model (Adjusted R²: 0.341 vs. 0.325). As in earlier results, the standalone Max [Z] term is not significant, but several interaction terms (Max [Z] × Sweden (OMXS30), Max [Z] × HK (Hang Seng), Max [Z]×VIX etc.) remain significant, consistent with the 2023 (preprint) / 2024 (JES publication ) findings. This suggests that if there is a GCP effect, it likely continues to operate indirectly, i.e., through interactions wi

This post explores the fascinating connections between economics and consciousness research, highlighting how cognitive biases influence decision-making and what this means for ethical practices in business.

Explore how Google Cloud Platform (GCP) data analytics can empower investors by offering insights into market movements, trends, and actionable strategies.